Preview of the Champions League clash between Benfica and Real Madrid, set to take place on 17 February 2026. Team news, recent form, odds analysis and the best betting tips.
Match Preview Benfica vs Real Madrid
Competition: Champions League, Play-Offs
Date: 17 February 2026
Kick-off: 22:00
Match Overview
Benfica will host Real Madrid at the Estádio da Luz in the first leg of their Champions League play-off tie.
The Lisbon side scraped into the play-offs with considerable difficulty — finishing 22nd with nine points from eight matches and a goal difference of 10:12. Real Madrid were far more convincing, ending the league phase in 11th place with 14 points and a 15:9 goal difference.
Notably, Benfica were heavily reliant on their home fixtures, collecting seven of their nine points at the Estádio da Luz. Real, meanwhile, picked up five points from four away matches, underlining their usual European consistency.
Current Form and Team Momentum
Benfica head into the play-off round in solid form, having won four of their last five matches in all competitions while scoring 11 goals. However, their Champions League campaign lacked consistency over the longer run — just two wins from eight league-phase fixtures.
A key subplot is Benfica’s 4–2 victory over Real Madrid in the final round of the league phase. That win effectively propelled the Portuguese side into the top 24, with Andriy Lunin’s late own goal proving decisive. Those three points ultimately secured Benfica’s place in the play-offs.
That said, the hosts are not at full strength. Fredrik Aursnes is likely to miss the match through injury, Alexander Bah has only recently returned from an ACL tear and is unlikely to be ready for a full game, while Samuel Soares is dealing with a muscle issue.
Real Madrid arrive with stronger tournament metrics — 14 points and a 15:9 goal difference in the league phase — and good current form, having won four of their last five matches and scored in seven of their previous eight.
However, the visitors will also be weakened. Jude Bellingham is definitely out with a hamstring injury, Rodrygo is suspended, and Éder Militão continues his recovery from a serious injury. Kylian Mbappé has been managing knee discomfort but is expected to be included in the squad.
All told, the first leg presents an intriguing balance: Benfica carry a psychological boost after their 4–2 win, but Real Madrid look the more consistent side across the broader sample of the competition.
Key Match Factors
- Home advantage: 78% of Benfica’s Champions League points have come at home (7 of 9).
- Real Madrid attack: 15 goals in 8 matches (1.88 per game).
- Madrid absences: Bellingham and Rodrygo both unavailable.
- Recent head-to-head: Benfica won 4–2, but Real created plenty of chances in that match.
Odds Overview
According to the bookmakers:
- Benfica win — 3.60
- Draw — 3.50
- Real Madrid win — 2.00
The market positions the Madrid side as favourites, though without a major skew.
Betnews365 Prediction
Main pick: Real Madrid double chance (X2) + over 1.5 total goals
Real collected five more points than Benfica in the league phase and boast a superior goal difference (+6 versus −2). Even with key absentees, Los Blancos have remained reliable in front of goal, scoring in seven of their last eight matches.
Given Benfica’s strong home approach, the most logical scenario is an open, productive game in which the visitors avoid defeat at minimum.