Preview of the Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta, set to take place on 17 February 2026. Team news, recent form, odds analysis and the best betting tips.
Match Preview Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
Competition: Champions League, Play-Offs
Date: 17 February 2026
Kick-off: 21:00
Match Overview
Borussia Dortmund will host Italian side Atalanta in this Champions League play-off encounter. This stage features teams that finished between 9th and 24th in the league phase, battling for a place in the knockout rounds.
Dortmund finished 17th with 11 points, while Atalanta placed 15th with 13 points.
During the league phase, the German side impressed with their attacking output, scoring 19 goals in eight matches. However, their scoring rate dipped in the closing fixtures, with back-to-back defeats without finding the net — 0–2 against Inter and Tottenham. Overall, Dortmund’s eight matches produced 36 goals in total, an extraordinary average of 4.5 per game.
Atalanta, by contrast, were surprisingly restrained in the league phase. Despite their usual reputation as an attacking side, the Italians scored just 10 goals and conceded the same number.
Current Form and Team Momentum
Borussia Dortmund are currently in excellent attacking form. In the Bundesliga, they are on a six-match winning streak, scoring 18 goals in the process, which keeps them within touching distance of Bayern in the title race (six points behind).
Atalanta sit sixth in the Serie A table. Following Gian Piero Gasperini’s departure to Roma, the Bergamo side have noticeably shifted towards a more pragmatic style of play. For context, Atalanta scored 70+ goals in each of the previous two league seasons, whereas this campaign they have managed only 34 after 25 rounds.
That said, Atalanta are in superb form themselves — unbeaten in eight matches and conceding just two goals during that run.
Key Match Factors
- Managerial experience: Niko Kovač (Borussia Dortmund) holds a clear edge in managerial pedigree over Raffaele Palladino. The Croatian has worked both with the national team and European giants Bayern Munich, while Palladino’s experience has been limited to mid-table Italian sides Fiorentina and Monza.
- Squad quality: Dortmund possess a slightly stronger squad. Based on market valuations, the German side hold roughly a €100m advantage — €483m versus Atalanta’s €386m.
- Team profiles: Both sides are in strong form but achieve results in different ways — Atalanta through defensive solidity, Dortmund through aggressive attacking play.
Odds Overview
According to the bookmakers, the current odds are:
- Borussia Dortmund win — 2.04
- Draw — 3.83
- Atalanta win — 3.58
These prices suggest Dortmund are marginal favourites, largely due to home advantage. However, the odds to qualify for the next round are much tighter: 1.89 for Dortmund and 1.95 for Atalanta.
Betnews365 Prediction
Main pick: Borussia Dortmund team total over 1.5
Odds: 1.82
Both in the Champions League league phase and in the Bundesliga, Dortmund have shown a clear attacking focus, often at the expense of defensive solidity. Expecting the hosts to keep a clean sheet in a match of this intensity looks optimistic, meaning Niko Kovač’s side will likely need to outscore their opponents.
In the opening three league-phase fixtures — when points were crucial — Dortmund scored four goals in each match against Juventus, Athletic and Copenhagen. Spanish side Villarreal also conceded four against them. Only in the final rounds, once their play-off place was effectively secured, did Dortmund’s intensity drop.
Atalanta are undoubtedly well organised defensively and unlikely to collapse. However, under the pressure of the Westfalenstadion and Dortmund’s relentless attacking approach — regardless of the scoreline — the visitors are likely to concede a couple.